The Tigers Might Be Good This Year, But Probably Not

Another baseball season is upon us and it is time to talk about how okay, good-but-not-great, the Detroit Tigers will be this year. Last season they were competitive, but failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Will this season be the same? Better? Worse? Let’s take a look.

Key Subtractions

Cameron Maybin: This trade was supposed to be the opening salvo of the massive fire sale that would trim the Tigers’ payroll and net some young talent for the rebuild. What actually followed was a whole bunch of nothing as Al Avila was unable to get his grand plan off the ground, making the Maybin trade nothing more than a $9 million salary dump. $9 million in 2017 means absolutely nothing to the Tigers without the additional salary dumps that never came. All this trade did was leave a gaping hole in centerfield and at the top of the lineup, and save enough money to pay Anibal Sanchez for 12 losses or so. Maybin, an energetic, productive player is gone, yet we still have to deal with assholes like Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey. This deal gets 875 thumbs down.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Giant who cares. Some well-timed homeruns give the illusion that he had a good year, but with a -0.2 WAR, he was pretty much just as average backup catcher.

Key Additions

Um…yeah…Alex Avila and Omar Infante are back…yay? Infante, though having a good spring, has little chance of making the team. Andrew Romine has the Don Kelly super utility role on lockdown and they have Dixon Machado if they need another backup infielder who isn’t almost 40.

            Avila is a fine addition, I think he is a good backup and a great complement to James McCann. He will probably provide the same offensive numbers as Salty (though maybe not as dramatic) and a decent lefty bat off the bench. He is an excellent defensive catcher and will be an upgrade over Salty there. With that said, no team ever won the World Series on the back of a great backup catcher (sorry David Ross).

            Mike Mahtook was brought in to lose the centerfield job in Lakeland.

Youngsters Who Could Step Up

Here is where the Tigers can maybe make an improvement from last year. For the first time in over a decade the Tigers have some interesting youngsters who are major league ready, or pretty close. Say what you will about Dave Dombrowski, he did a great job of restocking the farm system before he was shown the door.

            Reigning Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, is the obvious guy in this group, hopefully he can build on an amazing rookie year and turn into the next Justin Verlander. If there is a god in this universe, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd will join Fulmer in the rotation this year. Both kids made great strides last season and pitched well enough to keep the Tigers in the wild card hunt down to the last day of the season. Pelfrey and Sanchez need to be tied to a raft and dropped at sea. I will rage like the Incredible Hulk if either of them win a rotation spot over the kids.

            JaCoby Jones is the one position player who stands out. This youngster might be the obvious choice to replace Maybin in center (half-hearted apologies to Tyler Collins and Mike Mahtook). If Jones preforms this spring, he needs to be the front runner for the opening day job. He is young, athletic, and fast, all things the team has lacked for years. His production has been stellar the spring so far, posting a line of .310/.355/.552.

            Joe Jimenez is the guy to watch out for in the bullpen. He has been off at the World Baseball Classic so no one has seen or heard from him in weeks, but he is a special talent at a spot that seems to need constant attention. This dude has destroyed batters in the minors over the last few years. In four seasons, at all levels, he has posted a 1.59 ERA and 204 Ks in 141.1 innings. Those are HOLY SHIT numbers, especially when stacked up against the festering turds that continually float in the toilet bowl that is Detroit’s bullpen.

What Could Go Right?

If healthy, this offense should bludgeon opposing pitchers into submission. Kinsler, J.D., Cabrera, V-Mart, Upton, Castellanos is as good a 1-6 you will find anywhere on the planet. Remember, last year the team lost J.D. for a couple moths to injury, Castellanos broke his hand while having a breakout season, and Upton was nonexistent for the first half. That loss of offense is easily worth the game or two they fell short by last year.

            There should be some optimism in the rotation, too. JV should have won the Cy Young. Fulmer was the ROY. Norris and Boyd showed big time potential in high pressure situations. Zimmermann’s track record makes me think he will be an effective starter…if healthy.

            I absolutely refuse to believe they will shit the bed against Cleveland the way they did last year. It just can’t happen again, no way.

What Could Go Wrong?

All the same shit that went wrong last year. For all the talent this team has, it is essentially the same team that won 86 games last year and finished 8 games behind the Indians. There are way too many IFs to be comfortable calling this team a contender. IF they stay healthy, IF the kids step up, IF the vets preform to their abilities. All those IFs leave a big question mark over the season.

            There is a staggering lack of depth on this team, which was exposed big time last year. When J.D. and Castellanos got hurt and Upton’s game went to shit there was no effective major league options to fill the void. Nothing has changed going into this season, any prolonged injuries or slumps will cost this team dearly. What happens if JV gets hurt or one of the kids in the rotation shits the bed? Sanchez? Pelfrey? Yeah, we’ve seen that show before.

            The ever-terrible, much maligned bullpen is still a HUGE question mark. K-Rod is a solid closer and performed well last year when they were able to get the ball to him. Unfortunately, I don’t think the starters will go eight innings every game, so we will need SOMEONE to step up. Justin Wilson (4.14 ERA, 0.4 WAR) and Mark Lowe (7.11 ERA, -1.0 WAR) were brought in last offseason to hold down the seventh and eighth; both promptly fell to pieces. So far this spring, they have ERAs of 8.31 and 5.40 respectively. [Editor’s Note: Because I’m super lazy a bunch of shit has happened since I wrote this, including the release of Mark Lowe. Yay!]. Shane Greene was effective at times in 2016, but ended the season with lackluster numbers (5.87 ERA, -0.6 WAR). He is sporting a 7.50 ERA this spring. Alex Wilson has been good and Jimenez could be a big addition (though he has yet to throw a single pitch at the major league level) but there is no Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman coming out of that pen.

            Cleveland could make the Tigers their little bitch again this year.

Prediction  

The potential for this team is all over the place heading into 2017. I can see a scenario where they play great and win the division. I can just as easily see them falling out of contention and cleaning house at the trade deadline like Avila wanted to do in the offseason. In reality, there is too much talent here for them to fall out of it early and there are WAY too many IFs for them to overtake Cleveland, who is clearly the class of the division. Just like last year, they will win around 85-88 games and compete for a wild card spot with teams like Seattle and New York. I am inclined to lean towards a better result this year than last with some health and better seasons from Zimmermann, Upton, and the kids.

88 Wins and they get the second Wild Card.